Investigating the impact of climate and land-use land cover changes on hydrological predictions over the Krishna river basin under present and future scenarios

Abstract

The climate and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes evince the considerable impact on water balance components by altering the hydrological processes. So, the present work focuses on the evaluation of the combined impact of both the climate and LULC changes along with and without water storage structures on water balance components of the Krishna river basin, India under present and future scenarios with the help of Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT). Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2) was used for the model calibration and validation, which were carried out at the Vijayawada gauge station. The coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values obtained during the calibration period were 0.63 and 0.61, respectively, whereas, in validation, these values were found to be 0.61 and 0.56, indicates satisfactory results. The results showed that the model simulations and performance were significantly influenced by the presence of water storage structures, whereas the LULC changes were effective at the sub-watershed level. Future LULC maps of 2025, 2055, and 2085 were simulated from the Cellular Automata (CA) Markov Chain model, and they were used along with future climate projections to investigate its impact on water balance components. The climate model projects an increase of water balance components specifically, surface runoff, streamflow, and water yield, except for evapotranspiration in the future. Whereas, the future LULC changes may influence in offsetting the streamflow 20 to 30% reference to the observed flow. Thus, LULC changes were significantly influenced the model simulations; therefore, it is essential to consider the LULC changes along with climate scenarios in climate change studies. Overall, the surface runoff, water yield, and streamflow may increase by 50% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, and they may double under the RCP 8.5 scenario by the end of the century.