Impacts of future climate change and different management scenarios on water-related ecosystem services: A case study in the Jianghuai ecological economic Zone, China

Abstract

Climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes alter ecosystem services that directly and indirectly affect human well-being. The impacts of management scenarios and different climate scenarios on water-related ecosystem services are uncertain in the context of future LULC and climate change interactions. Therefore, here, we analyzed the impact of future climate change and land management scenarios on water-related ecosystem services by 2030 in the Jianghuai Ecological Economic Zone (JHEEZ). Water yield and water purification were modelled for 2030, and the models were built on LULC scenarios and climate scenarios by using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services Trade-offs (InVEST) model. We used the Beijing Normal University Earth system model (BNU-ESM) for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and we simulated four LULC scenarios using the future LULC simulation (FLUS) model. Four 2030 LULC scenarios, including rapid urbanization (RUS), farmland protection (FPS), ecological protection (EPS), and returning farmland to lakes scenario (RLS), were designed and compared with the year 2015 as the baseline. We found that the water yield of each LULC scenario under RCP4.5 had a decreasing trend: 10.41% (RUS), 12.43% (FPS), 13.69% (EPS), and 13.83% (RLS). However, the water yield increased under RCP8.5 and were 5.92%, 3.77%, 2.35%, and 2.18%, respectively. Water purification increased more in all LULC scenarios under the RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5. The water purification of all land-use scenarios from small to large was FPS, RUS, EPS, and RLS. Our results indicated that climate change had a greater impactthan LULC on water yield, but LULC change had a greater impact on water purification. Our results provide scientific guidance for decision makers to develop better LULC policies to achieve sustainable water resource management in watershed-dominated regions. The integrated assessment approach to climate and land management also applies to other conditions to help achieve sustainable management.