Abstract
With the boom of vehicles, especially the dramatic rise of private car ownership, in China, transport CO2 emission in China has surged. However, China has been taking the responsibility to cut down carbon emissions and to make positive efforts towards technology innovations in the transport sector. Breaking the link between transport carbon emissions and transport turnover capacity for the past decades should be analyzed. The paper tested the decoupling degree and ranked its potential determinants for every transport mode in consideration of specific transport mode characteristics. We extended the original Kaya identity to make the factor analysis more pertinent to the analysis of transport-related CO2 emissions. Besides, we combined the decomposition technique with decoupling analysis, decomposing the transport decoupling index into five distinct aspects to detect the key drivers of the decoupling of transport-related CO2 emissions from transport turnover volume. Moreover, we analyzed the relationship between transport-related CO2 emission and transport output, which also offers a novel perspective on transport and corresponding environmental research. The results uncovered that a weak decoupling state appeared between 1990–1995 and 2000–2010 in China’s transport sector. Transport energy efficiency exerted the most significant impact in accelerating the decoupling of transport-related CO2 emissions from turnover volume for all transport modes while the energy mix effect impeded the decoupling evolution in most observed periods. Railway transport turnover and rail locomotives shared rises boosted by decoupling evolution, while vehicular transport showed adverse effects. The rise of the transport facilities’ shares of railways, waterways, and airways also advanced the decoupling evolution. Hence, policies of switching travel modes and establishing a “smart growth” pattern for private vehicles should be considered.
Highlights
CO2 emission mitigation has become a widely discussed topic in the last decades
We aimed to investigate the potential determinants of transport carbon emissions by combining the decomposition technique from the perspective of transport sector characteristics by calculating the decoupling indices of different travelling modes
In addition to focusing on economic issues, developing relevant strategies from the perspective of the transport sector, such as transport energy efficiency improvement [58], can be feasible for policy makers to break the rigid link between transport-related CO2 emission and transport output
Summary
CO2 emission mitigation has become a widely discussed topic in the last decades. The transport sector in China has drawn more attention with the development of its transport system. The current state and the relevant environmental issues of the transport sector in China have gained worldwide attention. The transport sector has generally been considered as a carbon emission booster. To this end, we tried to figure out whether it would be possible for transport turnover volume to increase with a simultaneous decrease in CO2 emissions. Research on the possibility and level of decoupling of carbon emissions from transport turnover volume was carried out. Decoupling of transport-related CO2 emissions from turnover volume in China should be discussed
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