Investigating the Dynamic Relationship Between Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Gross Domestic Product in Türkiye

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between Gross Domestic Product and greenhouse gas emissions in Türkiye from 1951 to 2018, using the Causal Decomposition Method that integrates Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Hilbert-Huang Transform, and Phase Coherence Methods. The primary focus is on identifying the key sectors contributing significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, particularly those connected to industrial production. The analysis reveals a one-way, short-term causal relationship from Gross Domestic Product to greenhouse gas emissions, spanning approximately 3 years. This finding suggests that changes in Gross Domestic Product have short-term effects on emissions, but not vice versa. Special emphasis is placed on the gases Cardon Dioxide, Methane and Nitrous Oxide, as they demonstrate a strong, consistent causal connection with Gross Domestic Product. The significance of this study lies in its utilization of the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition approach to investigate this dynamic causality and address a notable gap in the existing literature. Empirical results indicate a complex yet observable association between Gross Domestic Product growth and greenhouse gas emissions in Türkiye, and that this relationship becomes more important, especially in the short and long term, with periodic fluctuations.