Abstract
This paper presents a novel method to evaluate the reliability of the composite power system considering the effect of climate. In recent years, Bayesian networks have become a powerful tool in modeling and logical analysis of engineering systems and power systems. The main purpose of this paper is to formulate and elaborate a suitable framework for the analytical evaluation and estimation of composite power system reliability indices, consisting of generating units and transmission lines, using the Bayesian network considering the climatic effect of the model. The Bayesian network corresponding to the composite power system is formed in the proposed method using the concept of minimal cutset. The constructed Bayesian network provides an evaluation of the loss of load probability index of the system considering the effects of weather and climatic conditions, and various other analyzes from the perspective of reliability in the desired power system. The proposed methodology is implemented on Roy Billiton test system and the results are evaluated and analyzed.
Published Version
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