Investigating spatio-temporal variations and contributing factors of land use-related carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China

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The land use change is the primary factor in influencing the regional carbon emissions. Studying the effects of land use change on carbon emissions can provide supports for the development policies of carbon emission. Using land use and energy consumption data, this study measures carbon emissions from land use dynamics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2020. The standard deviation ellipse model is employed to investigate the distribution characteristics of the spatial patterns of carbon emissions, while the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model is used to examine the contributing factors of carbon emissions and their spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Results indicate a consistently increasing trend in carbon emissions from land use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2020. Construction land is characterized with both the primary source and an increasing intensity of carbon emissions. Besides, the spatial distribution of carbon emissions from land use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region demonstrates an aggregation pattern from in the northeast-southwest direction towards the center, with a greater aggregation trend in the east–west direction compared to that in the south-north direction. During the study period, a positive correlation was documented between carbon emissions and factors including total population, economic development level, land use degree, and landscape patterns. This correlation showed a decreasing trend and reached a stable level at the end of the study period. Moreover, the analysis showed a negative correlation between industrial structure and carbon emissions, which showed an increasing trend and reached a relatively high level at the end of the study period.