Investigating Some Trends of the Impact of Digitalisation on the Economy of the Republic of Armenia

Abstract

Fundamental understanding of the impact of digitalisation in various spheres of public life is essential in the development and implementation of policies aimed at realisation of the justified transformations. Considering the far-reaching effects of innovations and the realities formed through them, it is important to understand how modern trends change themselves or can change the socio-economic sight of the country under consideration, what should be paid attention to and when, showing a cautious approach. However, the possible impact of digitalisation on the economy of the Republic of Armenia has not been studied much. The economic aspects investigated in the professional literature are few, and a significant number of variables considered as indicators of digitalisation stand out for their frequent use. In this study, the value added created in Armenia and the export of telecommunications, computer, and information services from Armenia from the first quarter of 2013 to the third quarter of 2022 inclusive are considered. The purpose of the research is to find out the presence and nature of the possible interaction between those indicators, as well as to forecast the values of the latter for the next 10 quarters. The vector error-correction model is applied, which is due to the non-stationarity of the indicators. The results of the study show that there is a long-term interaction between the observed indicators, as persistent shocks are shown to stabilise at certain levels for the period from the fourth quarter 2022 to the fourth quarter 2028. For the period up to and including the first quarter of 2025, the values of both indicators are forecast.