Investigating economic growth, energy consumption and their impact on CO2 emissions targets in China

Abstract

This article aims to analyse economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions data in China comparing with the US and Japanese data. Then, we try to evaluate the Chinese government's targets in reducing energy use and carbon intensity. Economic growth is a key factor that determines the Chinese's ability to meet these targets. If we suppose that China's economic growth is maintained at 9.54% per year, and total primary energy supply (TPES) growth is stabilized at 3.82% on average, the country would be able to cut energy consumption per unit amount of gross domestic product (GDP) by 23.5% in 2010: if carbon-GDP intensity could decrease by 4.5% on average, China would be able to achieve a reduction in carbon-GDP emissions target by 49.87% or above the target in 2020. We suggest that China needs to stabilize CO2 per total primary energy supply intensity. This target can also push government to implement clean coal technology and promote renewable energy target more seriously. Finally, we argue that binding target on CO2 emissions has worked effectively in the case of Japan, but we have to be careful when analysing economic-energy-CO2 emissions in Japan due to ‘the lost decade’ of Japan's economy. Finally, we expect that developed countries such as Japan and the United States can help China not only in transferring technology but also in strengthening the institutional capacity such as in harmonizing regulations, in energy planning and in developing human capability.