Inverse problems using Artificial Neural Networks in long range atmospheric dispersion

Abstract

Abstract Scalar dispersion in the atmosphere is an important area wherein different approaches are followed in development of good analytical models. The analyses based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes offer an opportunity of model development based on first principles of physics and hence such models have an edge over the existing models. Both forward and backward calculation methods are being developed for atmospheric dispersion around NPPs at BARC. Forward modeling methods, which describe the atmospheric transport from sources to receptors, use forward-running transport and dispersion models or computational fluid dynamics models which are run many times, and the resulting dispersion field is compared to observations from multiple sensors. Backward or inverse modeling methods use only one model run in the reverse direction from the receptors to estimate the upwind sources. Inverse modeling methods include adjoint and tangent linear models, Kalman filters, and variational data assimilation, and neural network. The present paper is aimed at developing a new approach where the identified specific signatures at receptor points form the basis for source estimation or inversions. This approach is expected to reduce the large transient data sets to reduced and meaningful data sets. In fact this reduces the inherently transient data set into a time independent mean data set. Forward computations were carried out with CFD code for various cases to generate a large set of data to train the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Specific signature analysis was carried out to find the parameters of interest for ANN training like peak concentration, time to reach peak concentration and time to fall. The ANN was trained with data and source strength and locations were predicted from ANN. The inverse problem was performed using the ANN approach in long range atmospheric dispersion. An illustration of application of CFD code for atmospheric dispersion studies for a hypothetical case is also included in the paper.