Inventory write-down prediction for semiconductor manufacturing considering inventory age, accounting principle, and product structure with real settings

Abstract

The International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) No. 2 has been the worldwide accounting principle for the reduction of inventory to market allowance since January 1, 2005. Using make-to-stock manufacturing strategies and inventory accounting for only approximately 14% of the total costs, integrated device manufacturers have found maintaining robust records for financial statements increasingly difficult. For example, one company in the case study conducted in this study must write-down losses of 2–100% of the total inventory costs for products with inventory ages of 18months–3years. However, the average cycle time for producing flash memory is approximately 3months. In other words, when the system variation and safety stock policy are considered, the company must write-down the reduction of inventory to market allowance for most of work-in-process inventory. However, little research has been done to addressing the practical management of operations according to inventory aging processes. This study develops a polynomial-time-based model to obtain significant features, including inventory ages, accounting principles, and product structures (bill of material), for the accurate prediction of inventory write-downs to reduce the impact of the carrying value fluctuation of inventory. An empirical study was conducted on a Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer. The results show that predicting 3-month inventory write-downs of a complete flash memory production line comprising approximately 8500 product types can be conducted in less than 10s, with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) less than 3.5%. Discussions regarding the sensitivity analysis and cost tornado diagrams suggest the priority of affecting factors. The results show the viability of implementing the proposed model to predict inventory write-downs in the semiconductor manufacturing industry.