Abstract
Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have an important role in economic development in order to achieve thq quality of economic growth. Intense competition among MSMEs requires MSMEs to have a good inventory control that can help them minimize costs and maximize profits. One of the MSMEs that often experiences problems in inventory control is Sabun Bening Official. To solve the inventory problems in Sabun Bening Official, Holt-Winter Exponential Additive forecasting method is used as a guide to predict future product demand because product demand graph is seasonal and has trend pattern. After getting the value of product demand forecast, inventory control calucaltions are carried out using the Q Model probabilistic inventory method with lost sales condition. The uncertain and fluctuating demand causing the inventory system in Sabun Bening Official is probabilistic and the company will lose sales if it does not able to fulfill customer demands. Based on the research results, product forecasting for the coming period and inventory control policies which include the optimal number of product order, safety stock, reorder point, and product inventory costs can be obtained.
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