Invasion of Siberian Pine Populations in Mountain Tundra in the Northern Urals

Abstract

A new method for determining the upper forest border (UFB) as the border of the “root-closed” stand and regrowth as its potential vanguard is proposed. The mass dispersal of Pinus sibirica populations by the nutcracker (Nucifraga caryocatactes) in the UFB ecotone in the Northern Urals (Pavdinskii Kamen’ and Tretii Bugor Mountain) from the middle-mountain taiga to the mountain forest tundra and tundra at a distance reaching 1 km is found. It is done based on the original reconstruction method of the dynamics of population number in P. sibirica annual seedlings and on an analysis of their relations with the dynamics of the seed bearing and population number of the nutcracker. The trustworthy consortive relations of the number of Pinus sibirica generations in the mountain forested tundra and tundra zones, with its seed bearing and nutcracker number in the previous year in the middle-mountain taiga zone, are found. A significant increase, 3.7 times, in the number of seedling generations during the last 49 years is found in connection with the increase in the summer air temperature in the subarctic to 2.0°C. A hypothesis of the formation of the united genetic metapopulation of P. sibirica in the forest–tundra mountain ecotone zone as a consequence of its seed ornitochory from the highly different populations is formulated. A forecast of the mosaic formation of the vanguard “thin forests” in 20–25 years and the root-closed curtains of the forest in 40–50 years in the mountain tundra of the Northern Urals at the current rate of the rise in temperature is made.