Introducing Lightning Threat Messaging Using the GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB Composite

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Abstract In 2001, the National Weather Service (NWS) began a Lightning Safety Awareness Campaign to reduce lightning-related fatalities in the United States. Although fatalities have decreased 41% since the campaign began, lightning still poses a significant threat to public safety as the majority of victims have little or no warning of cloud-to-ground lightning. This suggests it would be valuable to message the threat of lightning before it occurs, especially to NWS core partners that have the responsibility to protect large numbers of people. During the summer of 2018, a subset of forecasters from the Jacksonville, Florida, NWS Weather Forecast Office investigated if messaging the threat of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning in developing convection was possible. Based on previous CG lightning forecasting research, forecasters incorporated new high-resolution Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction red–green–blue (RGB) composite imagery with Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor isothermal reflectivity and total lightning data to determine if there was enough confidence to message the threat of CG lightning before it occurred. This paper will introduce the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB composite, show how it can add value for short-term lightning forecasting, and provide an operational example illustrating how fusing these datasets together may be able to provide confidence and extend the lead time when messaging the threat of cloud-to-ground lightning before it occurs.