Abstract
A reservoir receives monthly river flows and releases water according to a monthly rule. The reservoir content fluctuations constitute a bivariate seasonal Markov process which is approximated by a Markov chain. For the approximate bivariate Markov chain the seasonal limiting distributions are derived. The distribution of the number of occurrences of emptiness during the critical month in N years of reservoir operation is also examined. This distribution is conditional on the month and state of the reservoir content when the reservoir is assumed to start operating. A simple numerical example illustrates the theory.
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