Interpretable machine learning for predicting biomethane production in industrial-scale anaerobic co-digestion

Abstract

The objective of this study is to apply machine learning models to accurately predict daily biomethane production in an industrial-scale co-digestion facility. The methodology involved applying elasticnet, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting to input–output data from an industrial-scale anaerobic co-digestion (ACoD) facility. The models were used to predict biomethane for 1-day, 3-day, 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 30-day, and 40-day time horizons. These models were fit on four years of operational data. The results showed that elastic net (a model with assumptions of linearity) was clearly outperformed by random forest and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), which had out-of-sample R2values ranging between 0.80 and 0.88, depending on the time horizon. In addition, feature importance and partial dependence analysis demonstrated the marginal and interaction effects on biomethane of selected biowaste inputs. For instance, food waste co-digested with percolate were shown to have strong positive interaction effects. One implication of this study is that XGBoost and random forest algorithms applied to industrial-scale ACoD data provide dependable prediction results and may be a useful complement for experimental and mechanistic/theoretical models of anaerobic digestion, especially where detailed substrate characterization is difficult. However, these models have limitations, and suggestions for deriving additional value from these methods are proposed.