Interpretable CT radiomics model for invasiveness prediction in patients with ground-glass nodules

Abstract

To evaluate the performance of an interpretable computed tomography (CT) radiomic model in predicting the invasiveness of ground-glass nodules (GGNs). The study was conducted retrospectively from 1 August 2017 to 1 August 2022, at three different centres. Two hundred and thirty patients with GGNs were enrolled at centre I as a training cohort. Centres II (n=157) and III (n=156) formed two external validation cohorts. Radiomics features extracted based on CT were reduced by a coarse-fine feature screening strategy. A radiomic model was developed through the use of the LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and XGBoost algorithms. Then, a radiological model was established through multivariate logistic regression analysis. Finally, the interpretability of the model was explored using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The radiomic XGBoost model outperformed the radiomic logistic model and radiological model in assessing the invasiveness of GGNs. The area under the curve (AUC) values for the radiomic XGBoost model were 0.885 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.836-0.923), 0.853 (95% CI 0.790-0.906), and 0.838 (95% CI 0.773-0.902) in the training and the two external validation cohorts, respectively. The SHAP method allowed for both a quantitative and visual representation of how decisions were made using a given model for each individual patient. This can provide a deeper understanding of the decision-making mechanisms within the model and the factors that contribute to its prediction effectiveness. The present interpretable CT radiomics model has the potential to preoperatively evaluate the invasiveness of GGNs. Furthermore, it can provide personalised, image-based clinical-decision support.