Interplanetary Parameters Leading to Relativistic Electron Enhancement and Persistent Depletion Events at Geosynchronous Orbit and Potential for Prediction

Abstract

AbstractWe have identified 61 relativistic electron enhancement events and 21 relativistic electron persistent depletion events during 1996 to 2006 from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 8 and 10 using data from the Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) >2 MeV fluxes. We then performed a superposed epoch time analysis of the events to find the characteristic solar wind parameters that determine the occurrence of such events, using the OMNI database. We found that there are clear differences between the enhancement events and the persistent depletion events, and we used these to establish a set of threshold values in solar wind speed, proton density and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz that can potentially be useful to predict sudden increases in flux. Persistent depletion events are characterized by a low solar wind speed, a sudden increase in proton density that remains elevated for a few days, and a northward turning of IMF Bz shortly after the depletion starts. We have also found that all relativistic electron enhancement or persistent depletion events occur when some geomagnetic disturbance is present, either a coronal mass ejection or a corotational interaction region; however, the storm index, SYM‐H, does not show a strong connection with relativistic electron enhancement events or persistent depletion events. We have tested a simple threshold method for predictability of relativistic electron enhancement events using data from GOES 11 for the years 2007–2010 and found that around 90% of large increases in electron fluxes can be identified with this method.