International variation in the prevalence of preclinical colorectal cancer: Implications for predictive values of noninvasive screening tests and potential target populations for screening.

Abstract

Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is implemented in an increasing number of countries. We aimed to assess international variation in the prevalence of preclinical CRC and the resulting variation in positive and negative predictive values (PPVs, NPVs) of existing and potential CRC screening tests in various countries. Using age‐ and sex‐specific CRC incidence data and transition rates from preclinical to clinical CRC we estimated overall and age‐ and sex‐specific prevalence of preclinical CRC in the target population aged 50–74 years in different parts of the world. These prevalence estimates were used to derive PPVs and NPVs for existing and potential noninvasive screening tests with varying levels of sensitivity and specificity. Within all regions and countries, prevalence strongly increases with age and is higher in men than in women. In addition, major variation was seen between regions and countries, with overall prevalence varying between 1 and 0.1%. As a result, PPVs are expected to strongly vary between ∼10% for men in high incidence countries, such as Australia and Germany, and 1% for women in low incidence countries, whereas NPVs are expected to be consistently well above 99%. Variation in CRC prevalence profoundly affects expected PPVs of screening tests, and PPVs should be carefully considered when decisions on screening tests and strategies are made for specific populations and health care systems. Here, we provide estimates of preclinical CRC and expected PPVs and NPVs of noninvasive screening tests, which may enhance the empirical basis for planning of population‐based CRC screening strategies.