International transferability of macro-level safety performance functions: a case study of the United States and Italy

Abstract

Abstract Safety performance functions (SPFs), or crash-prediction models, have played an important role in identifying the factors contributing to crashes, predicting crash counts and identifying hotspots. Since a great deal of time and effort is needed to estimate an SPF, previous studies have sought to determine the transferability of particular SPFs; that is, the extent to which they can be applied to data from other regions. Although many efforts have been made to examine micro-level SPF transferability, few studies have focused on macro-level SPF transferability. There has been little transferability analysis of macro-level SPFs in the international context, especially between western countries. This study therefore evaluates the transferability of SPFs for several states in the USA (Illinois, Florida and Colorado) and for Italy. The SPFs were developed using data from counties in the United States and provincias in Italy, and the results revealed multiple common significant variables between the two countries. Transferability indexes were then calculated between the SPFs. These showed that the Italy SPFs for total crashes and bicycle crashes were transferable to US data after calibration factors were applied, whereas the US SPFs for total and bicycle crashes, with the exception of the Colorado SPF, could not be transferred to the Italian data. On the other hand, none of the pedestrian SPFs developed was transferable to other countries. This paper provides insights into the applicability of macro-level SPFs between the USA and Italy, and shows a good potential for international SPF transferability. Nevertheless, further investigation is needed of SPF transferability between a wider range of countries.