Abstract
Global initiatives to reduce carbon emissions are stimulating the demand for green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol. By 2023, the total low-carbon hydrogen production capacity from announced projects worldwide is projected to reach 38 million tonnes. China is experiencing a surge in green hydrogen projects, with a growing number targeting international markets in addition to domestic demand. This study delves into a systematic modeling analysis to uncover the pivotal roles that China's subregions can play in shaping the future global trade of green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol. Utilizing a dynamic programming model, complemented by an array of supply chain models for detailed cost estimations, the study highlights the unique advantages and vast potential of subregional engagement in both domestic and international trade. Furthermore, the research explores the essential infrastructure demands and assesses the impact of renewable energy costs and policy shifts on the evolving trade landscape.
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