Internal Migration and Fertility in Turkey: Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis

Abstract

Starting from the mid-twentieth century, Turkey has experienced a remarkable fertility decline. Total period fertility declined from the level of 6 or 7 to the almost replacement level by 2003. Similarly, in the 1950s onwards internal migration gathered speed and transformed Turkey from a predominantly rural country to a mainly urban one in less than half a century. Fertility and migration were mutually reinforcing processes in Turkey. Considering this relationship, the study aims to compare fertility behaviours of migrants with those of nonmigrants at both origin and destination areas. The data source is the 2003 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey. A nonparametric descriptive survival analysis technique, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, was employed. Kaplan-Meier survival curves of transition to first, second and subsequent births were compared by migration status. Survival curves of second and subsequent births for rural-to-urban and urban-to-rural migrant women are similar to the curves at the place of destination rather than place of origin. This result reveals that adaptation theory, rather than socialization theory, is more explanatory in the case of Turkey. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates showed that rural native and rural-to-rural migrant women experience all the events related with family formation earlier in their life cycle.