Interest Rate Deregulation, Bank Development And Economic Growth In South Africa: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract

In this paper the dynamic relationship between interest rate reforms, bank-based financial development and economic growth is examined – using two models in a stepwise fashion. In the first model, the impact of interest rate reforms on financial development is examined using a financial deepening model. In the second model, the dynamic causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is examined, by including investment as an intermittent variable in the bi-variate setting, thereby creating a simple tri-variate causality model. Using cointegration and error-correction models, the study finds strong support for the positive impact of interest rate reforms on financial development in South Africa. However, contrary to the results from some previous studies, the study finds that financial development, which results from interest rate reforms, does not Granger cause investment and economic growth. In addition, the study finds a uni-directional causal flow from investment to financial development and prima-facie causal flow from investment to growth. The study, therefore, concludes that although interest rate reforms impact positively on financial depth in South Africa, the causal relationship between financial depth and economic growth tends to take a demand-following path. Moreover, given the causal flow from investment to financial development and a prima facie causal flow from investment to growth, it is likely that the economic development in South Africa is driven largely by the growth of the real sector rather than the financial sector.