Interdecadal Changes in the Relationship between ENSO, EAWM, and the Wintertime Precipitation over China at the End of the Twentieth Century

Abstract

Abstract The current study investigates the interdecadal changes in the relationship between the winter precipitation anomalies in southeastern China, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) at the end of the twentieth century. It appears that the relationships between the interannual variability of the southeastern China winter precipitation and ENSO as well as EAWM are obviously weakened after 1998/99. The possible mechanisms accounting for this interdecadal change in the relationship have been examined by dividing the data into two subperiods [1980–98 (P1) and 1999–2015 (P2)]. The results indicate that, without the linear contribution of EAWM, ENSO only play a limited role in the variability of winter precipitation in southeastern China in both subperiods. In contrast, in P1, corresponding to an ENSO-independent weaker-than-normal EAWM, anomalous southerlies along coastal southeastern China associated with an anticyclone over the northwestern Pacific transport water vapor to China. However, in P2 the impact of EAWM on winter precipitation in southeastern China is weakened because of the regime shift of EAWM. The EAWM-related positive SLP anomalies over the North Pacific move eastward in P2, causing an eastward migration of the associated anomalous southerlies along its western flank and therefore cannot significantly contribute to the positive winter precipitation anomalies in southeastern China.