Critical Effects of Precipitation on Future Colorado River Flow

Abstract

Abstract Of concern to Colorado River management, as operating guidelines post-2026 are being considered, is whether water resource recovery from low flows during 2000–20 is possible. Here, we analyze new simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to determine plausible climate impacts on Colorado River flows for 2026–50 when revised guidelines would operate. We constrain projected flows for Lees Ferry, the gauge through which 85% of the river flow passes, using its estimated sensitivity to meteorological variability together with CMIP6-projected precipitation and temperature changes. The critical importance of precipitation, especially its natural variability, is emphasized. Model projections indicate increased precipitation in the upper Colorado River basin due to climate change, which alone increases river flows by 5%–7% (relative to a 2000–20 climatology). Depending on the river’s temperature sensitivity, this wet signal compensates for some, if not all, of the depleting effects of basin warming. Considerable internal decadal precipitation variability (∼5% of the climatological mean) is demonstrated, driving a greater range of plausible Colorado River flow changes for 2026–50 than previously surmised from treatment of temperature impacts alone: the overall precipitation-induced Lees Ferry flow changes span from −25% to +40%, contrasting with a range from −30% to −5% from expected warming effects only. Consequently, extreme low and high flows are more likely. Lees Ferry flow projections, conditioned on initial drought states akin to 2000–20, reveal substantial recovery odds for water resources, albeit with elevated risks of even further flow declines than in recent decades. Significance Statement Increasing temperatures have led to concerns that Colorado River flows will be permanently reduced due to global warming. Here, we analyze precipitation, surface temperature, and streamflow (at Lees Ferry) in the upper Colorado River basin since 1895 revealing precipitation to be the largest contributor to runoff variability while temperature variability has been a much smaller contributor. New climate model projections indicate increased precipitation in the upper basin due to global warming, acting to increase river flows by 5%–7% during 2026–50. This wet signal compensates for some of the depleting effects from further basinwide warming. Critically, the large intrinsic variability in precipitation is demonstrated to yield a wider range of future Colorado River flows than previously foreseen based solely on considering temperature effects.