Interannual variation of the number of winter extreme low temperature days in southern China and influencing factors

Abstract

The interannual variation of the number of winter extreme low temperature days (NELTD) in southern China from 1980 to 2019 is analyzed, and the individual and combined effects of the autumn sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the central equatorial Pacific and Siberian snow cover extent anomaly (SCEA) are investigated. The analysis shows that the anomalous atmospheric circulation in Eurasia is dominated by the meridional dipole pattern with the characteristic of “high north and low south” during the winter with large NELTD in southern China. The autumn SSTA in the central equatorial Pacific influences the winter NELTD mainly through the anomalous atmospheric circulation at the mid–low latitudes while the Siberian SCEA in October acts by affecting that at the mid–high latitudes. A cold SSTA is conducive to strengthening the winter East Asian trough and subtropical jet, as well as abnormal northeasterly wind in most parts of southern China. However, the central equatorial Pacific SSTA has a limited influence on the Ural ridge, polar front jet, and Siberian High at the mid–high latitudes. On the other hand, the Siberian SCEA could result in anomalous atmospheric circulation at the mid–high latitudes, which has a strengthening and supplementing effect on that of SSTA in the central equatorial Pacific. During the winter following the negative SCEA in October, the Ural ridge and Siberian High are strengthened while the polar front jet is weakened. The anomalous atmospheric circulation in Eurasia is dominated by a meridional dipole pattern of “high north and low south”. The comparative analysis reveals that both SSTA and SCEA play an important role in the NELTD in southern China, but they are independent factors and act in different ways. Therefore, the combined effect of autumn SSTA in the central equatorial Pacific and Siberian SCEA could contribute to the prediction of the winter NELTD in southern China.