Interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon associated with the air–sea feedback in the northern Indian Ocean

Abstract

Using observation-based analyses, this study identifies the leading interannual pattern of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) independent of ENSO and examines the potential mechanisms of its formation. For this purpose, an objective procedure is used to isolate the variability of the summer precipitation associated with the contemporary ENSO state and in previous winter–spring, which influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region in opposite ways. It is shown that the leading pattern of these ENSO-related monsoon rainfall anomalies reproduces some major ISMR features and well represents its connections to the global-scale ENSO features in both lower and upper troposphere. On the other hand, the leading pattern derived from the precipitation anomalies with the ENSO component removed in the ISM and surrounding region also accounts for a substantial amount of the monsoon precipitation centered at the eastern coast of the subtropical Arabian Sea, extending into both the western Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent. The associated atmospheric circulation change is regional in nature, mostly confined in the lower to mid troposphere centered in the Arabian Sea, with a mild connection to an opposite tendency centered at the South China Sea. Further analyses show that this regional pattern is associated with a thermodynamic air–sea feedback during early to mid summer season. Specifically, before the monsoon onset, an anomalous atmospheric high pressure over the Arabian Sea causes excessive shortwave radiation to the sea surface and increases SST in May. The warm SST anomalies peak in June and reduce the sea level pressure. The anomalous cyclonic circulation generates regional convection and precipitation, which also induces subsidence and anticyclonic circulation over the South China Sea. The combined cyclonic–anticyclonic circulation further transport moisture from the western Pacific into the Indian Ocean and causes its convergence into the Arabian Sea. As a result, the regional cyclone is further enhanced and expanded to the Indian subcontinent in July. The substantial reduction of the solar radiation, however, cools down the sea surface and causes the decay of the circulation in August. This study suggests that the pre-monsoon Arabian Sea condition may be an important contributor to the ISM predictability from monthly to seasonal scales.