Abstract
Abstract. The response of Antarctic sea ice to large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability varies according to sea ice sector and season. In this study, interannual atmosphere–sea ice interactions were explored using observations and reanalysis data, and compared with simulated interactions by models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulated relationships between atmospheric variability and sea ice variability generally reproduced the observed relationships, though more closely during the season of sea ice advance than the season of sea ice retreat. Atmospheric influence on sea ice is known to be strongest during advance, and it appears that models are able to capture the dominance of the atmosphere during advance. Simulations of ocean–atmosphere–sea ice interactions during retreat, however, require further investigation. A large proportion of model ensemble members overestimated the relative importance of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) compared with other modes of high southern latitude climate, while the influence of tropical forcing was underestimated. This result emerged particularly strongly during the season of sea ice retreat. The zonal patterns of the SAM in many models and its exaggerated influence on sea ice overwhelm the comparatively underestimated meridional influence, suggesting that simulated sea ice variability would become more zonally symmetric as a result. Across the seasons of sea ice advance and retreat, three of the five sectors did not reveal a strong relationship with a pattern of large-scale atmospheric variability in one or both seasons, indicating that sea ice in these sectors may be influenced more strongly by atmospheric variability unexplained by the major atmospheric modes, or by heat exchange in the ocean.
Highlights
Antarctic sea ice extent has increased by approximately 1.5 % per decade since satellite observations began in 1979 (Parkinson and Cavalieri, 2012; Turner et al, 2015)
A large proportion of the observed trends are thought to be driven by interactions between Antarctic sea ice and atmospheric processes such as wind (Liu et al, 2004; Raphael, 2007; Lefebvre and Goosse, 2008; Massom et al, 2008; Yuan and Li, 2008; Holland and Kwok, 2012; Matear et al, 2015), and it has been suggested that deficiencies in the model representation of atmospheric circulation may account for at least part of this disparity (Hosking et al, 2013; Mahlstein et al, 2013)
Interactions during the seasons of ice advance and retreat are the key focus of this study, as it is during these periods that the link between Antarctic sea ice to atmospheric forcing is strongest (Stammerjohn et al, 2008; Renwick et al, 2012)
Summary
Antarctic sea ice extent has increased by approximately 1.5 % per decade since satellite observations began in 1979 (Parkinson and Cavalieri, 2012; Turner et al, 2015). A large proportion of the observed trends are thought to be driven by interactions between Antarctic sea ice and atmospheric processes such as wind (Liu et al, 2004; Raphael, 2007; Lefebvre and Goosse, 2008; Massom et al, 2008; Yuan and Li, 2008; Holland and Kwok, 2012; Matear et al, 2015), and it has been suggested that deficiencies in the model representation of atmospheric circulation may account for at least part of this disparity (Hosking et al, 2013; Mahlstein et al, 2013). The response of Antarctic sea ice to atmospheric forcing incorporates complex feedbacks and interactions between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean (Lefebvre and Goosse, 2008; Raphael and Hobbs, 2014; Matear et al, 2015), and measuring the extent to which these feedbacks and interactions are represented in global climate simulations could provide insight into the representation of sea ice trends and variability
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