Inter-annual variability influences the eco-evolutionary dynamics of range-shifting

Roslyn C Henry,Justin M.J Travis,Greta Bocedi,Calvin Dytham

doi:10.7717/peerj.228

Roslyn C Henry, Justin M.J Travis + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.228

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Journal: PeerJ	Publication Date: Jan 2, 2014
Citations: 22	License type: cc-by

Affiliation: Institut des Sciences Biologiques, University of York

Abstract

Understanding the eco-evolutionary dynamics of species under rapid climate change is vital for both accurate forecasting of biodiversity responses and for developing effective management strategies. Using an individual-based model we demonstrate that the presence and form (colour) of inter-annual variability in environmental conditions can impact the evolution of dispersal during range shifts. Under stable climate, temporal variability typically results in higher dispersal. However, at expanding margins, inter-annual variability actually inhibits the evolution of higher emigration propensities by disrupting the spatial sorting and natural selection processes. These results emphasize the need for future theoretical studies, as well as predictive modelling, to account for the potential impacts of inter-annual variability.

Highlights

Growing evidence suggests climate change is intensifying the inter-annual variability of the climate and the frequency of extreme weather events, further increasing the temporal correlation of unusual conditions (Coumou & Rahmstorf, 2012; Hansen, Sato & Ruedy, 2012)
Prior to climate change the mean emigration probability is low in the core and increases towards the range margins (Fig. 1A)
The gradient in emigration probability becomes more pronounced with environmental noise, with the highest emigration rates at the margins evolving under white noise

Summary

Introduction

Growing evidence suggests climate change is intensifying the inter-annual variability of the climate and the frequency of extreme weather events, further increasing the temporal correlation of unusual conditions (Coumou & Rahmstorf, 2012; Hansen, Sato & Ruedy, 2012). A species’ dispersal ability is central for determining its range shifting potential and is a key parameter in predictive models. We understand how dispersal should evolve in a stationary range with inter-annual variability in climate conditions (Kun & Scheuring, 2006; Bocedi, Heinonen & Travis, 2012), theory on range shifting

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Conclusion