Inter-annual to inter-decadal streamflow variability in Quebec and Ontario in relation to dominant large-scale climate indices

Abstract

Summary The impacts of large-scale climate oscillations on hydrological systems and their variability have been documented in different parts of the world. Since hydroclimatic data are known to exhibit non-stationary characteristics, spectral analyses such as wavelet transforms are very useful in extracting time–frequency information from such data. As Canadian studies, particularly those of regions east of the Prairies, using wavelet transform-based methods to draw links between relevant climate indices [e.g., the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)] and streamflow variability are not common, this study aims to analyze such relationships for the southern regions of Quebec and Ontario. Monthly and annual streamflow data with a record length of 55 years were used to capture streamflow variability at intra-annual, inter-annual and inter-decadal scales. The continuous wavelet transform spectra of monthly streamflow data revealed consistent significant 6- and 12-month periodicities, which are likely associated with strong seasonality factors. Its annual counterparts showed four different significant periodicities: up to 4 years, 4–6 years, 6–8 years, and greater than 8 years – all of which occurred after the late 1960s/early 1970s. Wavelet coherence analyses show that the influence of ENSO and NAO at the inter-annual scale occurs at 2–6 year periodicities, and the influence of PDO occur at periodicities up to 8 years and exceeding 16 years. Correlations between these climate indices and streamflow were computed to determine the time delay of streamflow response to the influence of ENSO, NAO, and PDO. The lag times ranged from 6–48 months (for monthly data) and 1–4 years (for annual data). This research contributes to our understanding of streamflow variability over the southern parts of Quebec and Ontario, and the role of ENSO, NAO, and PDO phenomena on this variability. These relationships can be also used to improve hydrological forecasting and water resources management in Ontario and Quebec.