Intelligence analysis and social science methods: exploring the potential for and possible limits of mutual learning

Abstract

This article considers the parallels between social science approaches to research and the practice of national security intelligence analysis. Just as it is important for policymakers and citizens to understand the limits to what intelligence can deliver, so it is important to recognize the limits to what social science methods can offer intelligence analysis. Moreover, it is at least equally important to recognise crucial differences in the environments in which mainstream social science research and national security intelligence analysis are conducted. A clear understanding of these is essential to thinking about the utility of social science approaches to intelligence analysis. Hence, the chapter begins by setting out what qualitative social science can offer and then goes on to explain why the straightforward application of social science techniques cannot of itself be regarded as a ‘silver bullet’ for the challenges confronting intelligence analysis.