Intellectual capital forecasting for invention patent through machine learning model

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PurposeThis research explores support vector machine (SVM) with Gaussian radial basis function kernel (RBF) as the model and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) for forecasting the invalidation re-examination decisions of China invention patents, it is beneficial to support patent monetization for corporate intellectual capital.Design/methodology/approachThere were 8,666 China invention patents with their existing invalidation re-examination decisions during 2000∼2021 chosen to conduct classification model training and prediction for the accuracy of invalidation re-examination decisions through SVM with RBF. Statistical significance was performed by ANOVA to identify indicators for these invention patents selected in this research. These selected 8,666 China invention patents were divided into two groups based on their invalidation re-examination decisions during 2000∼2021 in Table 1, which Group 1 included 5,974 invention patents with all valid or partially valid claims, and Group 0 included 2,692 invention patents with all invalid claims. Thereafter, each group was further divided into sub-groups based on 13 major regions where the applicants filed invalidation re-examination. The training sets for Group 1, Group 0 and the sub-groups were selected based on the patent issued in January, February, April, May, July, August, October and November; while the prediction sets were selected from the invention patents issued in March, June, September and December.FindingsThe training and prediction accuracies were compared to the existing invalidation re-examination decisions. Accuracies of training sets were ranged from 100% in region 7 (Beijing) and region 9 (Shanghai) to 95.95% in region 1 (US), and the average accuracy of invalidation re-examination decisions was 98.95%. While the accuracies of prediction sets for Group 1 were ranged from 100.00% in region 7 (Beijing) to 90.78% in region 13 (Overseas-others), and the average accuracy of classification was 95.96%, this research’s outcomes confirmed the purpose of applying SVM with RBF to predict the patentability sustainability.Originality/valueThis research developed an empirical method through SVM with RBF to predict patentability sustainability which is crucial for corporate intellectual capital on patents. In particular, the investments on patents are huge, including the patent cultivation and maintenance, developments into products or services, patent litigations and dispute managements. Therefore, this research is beneficial not only for corporation, but also for research organisations to perform cost-effective and profitable patent strategies on intellectual capital.