Integration of structural health monitoring and fatigue damage prognosis

Abstract

This paper presents a Bayesian probabilistic methodology to integrate model-based fatigue damage prognosis (FDP) with online and offline structural health monitoring (SHM) data. The prognosis uses fracture mechanics-based fatigue crack growth modeling, along with quantification of various sources of uncertainty, including natural variability, data uncertainty and model errors. These uncertainty sources are connected using a Bayesian network and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the uncertainty contributions from these sources. The cycle-by-cycle simulation of fatigue crack growth is expedited via the use of a surrogate modeling technique (Gaussian process model) to replace computationally expensive finite element analysis. Real-time monitoring data of external variable amplitude loading history is used to construct a Bayesian autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict and update the loading. On-ground crack inspection data is used to quantify the uncertainty in the initial and current size of an existing crack, using the Bayesian approach. Three possible cases of inspection results are considered: (1) crack is not detected; (2) crack is detected but not measured; (3) crack is detected and measured. Different scenarios of data availability (load monitoring data and inspection data) are considered for the prognosis of an individual component in a fleet. A numerical example, surface cracking in a rotorcraft mast under service loading, is implemented to illustrate the proposed methodology. The results of prognosis are validated using Bayesian hypothesis testing.