Integration of flows and signals data from mobile phone network for statistical analyses of traffic in a flooding risk area

Abstract

In this paper, we present a robust spatiotemporal statistical methodology that is capable of accurately forecasting traffic in the flood-prone area of the Mandolossa in the Province of Brescia (Italy). An innovative combination of two sources of mobile phone data is proposed to obtain an extremely accurate representation of the flows of people passing by the streets directly linked to the risky area. Three types of flows have been considered: outflows (from the flood-prone area to the neighborhood), inflows (from the neighborhood to the flood-prone area), and internal flows (within the flood-prone area). The three flows are assumed to be dependent on each other and are modeled using a vector autoregressive approach. We found evidence of both weekly and daily seasonal components in the time series. To capture the seasonality, a dynamic harmonic regression component has been included, where the optimal number of Fourier bases in the periodic functions has been chosen according to a criterion based on the Akaike Information Criteria. On the other side, the set of autoregressive parameters has been defined in such a way as to represent the time period necessary for the mobile phone company to observe, process, and release the data. The forecasting ability of the model has been assessed using blocked k-folds cross-validation along with the mean absolute percentage error and the hit rate. Though the model performs better for non-summer days, we found that it satisfactorily forecasts both the number and the level of people moving.