Integrating the InVEST and SDSM Model for Estimating Water Provision Services in Response to Future Climate Change in Monsoon Basins of South China

Dong Yang,Wen Liu,Chaohao Xu,Lizhi Tao,Xianli Xu

doi:10.3390/w12113199

Abstract

An assessment of how future climate change will impact water provision services is important for formulating rational water resources management and development strategies as well as for ecosystem protection. The East Asian monsoon is an important component of the Asian climate and its changes affect the climate in East Asia and seriously affect the provision of water services. In this study, through the coupling of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and Statistical Downscaling Technique Model (SDSM), we evaluated the impact of future climate change on water provisions in a typical East Asian monsoon basin of South China. The results demonstrate the applicability of the InVEST model combined with the SDSM model over the East Asian monsoon river basins. Under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario (RCP4.5), the annual average maximum and minimum temperatures would continually increase far into the future (2080–2095). However, the maximum and minimum temperatures slightly decreased under representative concentration pathway 2.6 scenario (RCP2.6) in the far future (2080–2095). The annual average precipitation and reference evapotranspiration experienced slight but steady increasing trends under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Based on the InVEST model simulation, annual average water yield would increase by 19.3% (33.5%) far in the future (2080–2095) under RCP2.6 (4.5) scenario. This study provides a valuable reference for studying future climate change impacts on water provisions in East Asian monsoon basins.

Highlights

The climate is predicted to change significantly by the end of the twenty-first century according to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) [1,2].Climate change will significantly affect terrestrial hydrology, which in turn will affect water resources [3].Water is important for all natural and socioeconomic systems
This study aims to evaluate the impact of future climate change scenarios on the water provision services in a typical East Asian monsoon basin of South China
Since LULC, soil parameters, and other characteristics of the sub-basins are major inputs for the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, it can change the hydrological cycle and thereby influencing water yield. These parameters usually do not change much compared with climate data, and this study mainly studies the impact of future climate change on water yield

Summary

Introduction

The climate is predicted to change significantly by the end of the twenty-first century according to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) [1,2].Climate change will significantly affect terrestrial hydrology, which in turn will affect water resources [3].Water is important for all natural and socioeconomic systems. The climate is predicted to change significantly by the end of the twenty-first century according to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) [1,2]. Climate change will significantly affect terrestrial hydrology, which in turn will affect water resources [3]. Climate change can directly impact the variation and patterns of water resources availability and indirectly affect agriculture, energy supply and overall water infrastructure [4,5]. Water 2020, 12, 3199 effects on water provision services is important for present and future assessments and management planning of water resources. The impact of climate change has been extensively studied using general circulation models (GCMs), which can provide credible information about the historical, current and future climate [6,7]

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