Integrating Species Distribution Models to Estimate the Population Size of Forest Musk Deer (Moschus berezovskii) in the Central Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi

Abstract

Understanding the population size of animals is crucial for formulating scientific management policies, especially for endangered species. The central area of the Qinling Mountains in Shaanxi is a vital area for forest musk deer, but research is insufficient and estimates of its population size are lacking. In this study, we constructed a species distribution model for the forest musk deer in the central Qinling Mountains in Shaanxi using topography, land-use, and bioclimatic variables alongside forest musk deer occurrence data. The Time-to-Event (TTE) model was employed to estimate the population density of forest musk deer in the selected survey area. By utilizing the suitable habitat area provided by the species distribution model, the population density in the central Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi was estimated by extrapolating from the survey area. Our estimate of the population size of forest musk deer in the central Qinling Mountains of Shaanxi is approximately 2722 ± 788. Similar population estimation methods could be more widely applied, especially in areas with limited survey resources.