HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELING FOR EXPLORATION OF THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF KASHMIR MUSK DEER IN DACHIGAM NATIONAL PARK, KASHMIR

Abstract

Musk deer are highly important as a medicinal speci es that are severely exploited throughout their ran ge of occurrence due to the medicinal value of the musk p roduced only by the male individuals. Methods used for studying the populations and distributions of other ungulates do not work well with musk deer and the presence of a unified methodology for studying musk deer appear to be lacking worldwide. Therefore, th e development of a simple predictive model for studyi ng the distribution of the musk deer habitats stand s as an important task to be accomplished. Two kinds of research questions were pursued during the present study-examining through field research what kind of habitat musk deer used and mapping the habitat in the park using a GIS and remote sensing environment. The parameters which were found to have a profound influence in predicting the species’s spatial distr ibution have been used in the modeling of the curre nt habitat suitability for the Kashmir musk deer ( Moschus cupreus ). The study was conducted at the upper reaches (elevations 2200 m and above) of the Dachig am National Park, Kashmir (34°05΄18.40 ΄΄ N34°06 ΄04.69 ΄΄ N and 75°03 ΄32.05 ΄΄ E-75°04 ΄27.26 ΄΄ E) during January 2005-January 2008 to evaluate the characteristics of the musk deer habitats. The envi ronmental attributes which were found to have a profound influence in predicting the species’s spat ial distribution included the slope exposures in th e range of 293°Northwest -68° Northeast, slope gradie nts of 25-40° and elevations of 2100 m and above, with the preference ratings of aspect > slope > ele vation and, therefore, were considered for the development of the habitat suitability model for pr ediction of the spatial distribution of the Kashmir musk deer. The current suitable musk deer habitat i n Dachigam National Park is estimated in the extent of about 40 sq. km. (~28% area of the national park ). The model results were found to have a good performance in making fair predictions (about 50% a rea of the National Park has been validated for predictions). The spatial distribution of musk deer reflected the musk deer habitats mostly spread thr ough the Picea smithiana and blue pine forest and some habitats close to th e alpine scrub nearby to the rocky cliffs. The potential of the model has been utilize d in finding the density of musk deer. Possible 60 musk deer survive in Dachigam National Park with a densi ty of 0.42 individuals per sq. km. However, the weighted mean density in the musk deer habitats was about 1.55 individuals per sq. km.