Integrating policy quantification analysis into ecological security pattern construction: A case study of Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Abstract

The construction of an ecological security pattern (ESP) is an important undertaking in ensuring the stability of the ecosystem and the long-term growth of humanity. Existing research, However, existing research often overlooks the quantification of policy implications in ESP development. The objective of this paper was to bridge this gap by integrating policy quantification analysis (PQA) with nature, society and into ESP construction and providing targeted ecological management recommendations. The policy texts were quantified into reusable research data, which served as a foundation for the selection of indicators and the optimization of ecological security patterns, by using machine learning techniques. The methodology “Patch-matrix-corridor” was used to create a spatially correlated ecological security pattern. Through factor analysis and Random Forest (RF), the impact of each indicator on ecological security was thoroughly examined, offering substantial support for policy development and ESP construction planning. The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA) was selected as the study area, the study found that: (1) The proposed framework PQA based-ESP could provide a useful eco-management tools. (2) Policy adaptability had a substantial impact on environmental security in the GBA, but the ecosystem service index has the highest impact. (3) Applying the framework, we identified a total of 1,993 km2 of ecological sources, 23 key ecological corridors, 58 general ecological corridors, and 31 ecological nodes. An improved ESP, characterized as “one circle, two bays, three rivers, multiple areas, corridors, and nodes,” was constructed in the GBA. (4) Given the multi-scale analysis, tailored ecological management policy recommendations were proposed for each city in the GBA. The study's findings offer actionable solutions for the international community facing growing ecological challenges.