Integrating meteorological and geospatial data for forest fire risk assessment

Abstract

Understanding the factors that cause fire is crucial for minimizing the fire risk. In this research, a comprehensive approach was adopted to recognize factors influencing forest fires. Golestan National Park (GNP) was considered as a representative area with a humid climate in this study. Initially, using the Multi-Criteria Evaluation Method, a fire risk map was created by analyzing natural and human factors, and vulnerable areas were identified. Then, the relationship between key elements such as meteorological conditions, Land Surface Temperature (LST), and precipitation, with the occurrence of fire in different years was investigated. CHIRPS and Landsat data were utilized to assess LST changes and precipitation. 23-year changes in fire occurrence areas in GNP were acquired using MODIS products. The results of the data analysis showed that the highest number of fires occurred in forest areas, and in the fire risk prediction map, the extremely high-risk class is completely consistent with the ground truth data. The assigned weights, derived from expert opinions, highlight the substantial significance of elevation, and distance from roads and settlements. Additionally, the effectiveness of the model in providing reliable forecasts for fire risks in GNP is highlighted by the ROC curve with an AUC value of 0.83. Forest fires within GNP exhibit a distinct seasonality, predominantly occurring from July to December. During the warmer months, by coinciding with summer excursions, human activities may contribute to the ignition of fires. In 2013 and 2014, rising fire incidents correlated with elevated temperatures, hinting at a potential connection. GNP fires showed an upward trend with higher monthly LST and a downward trend with increased annual precipitation. The results showed that there is a relationship between LST, precipitation, and the occurrence of fire in GNP. Approximately 176.15 ha of GNP's forest areas have been destroyed by fires over the last two decades. This research demonstrated that there is a dynamic interaction between environmental conditions and fire incidents. By considering these factors, managers and environmental planners can develop effective strategies for managing and preventing forest fire risks.