Abstract
Sea level rise is one of the key artefacts of a warming climate which is predicted to have profound impacts for coastal communities over the course of the 21st century and beyond. The IPCC provide regular updates (5–7 years) on the global status of the science and projections of climate change to assist guide policy, adaptation and mitigation endeavours. Increasingly sophisticated climate modelling tools are being used to underpin these processes with demand for improved resolution of modelling output products (such as predicted sea level rise) at a more localized scale. With a decade of common coverage between observational data and CMIP5 projection model outputs (2007–2016), this analysis provides an additional method by which to test the veracity of model outputs to replicate in-situ measurements using the case study site of New York. Results indicate that the mean relative velocity of the model projection products is of the order of 2.5–2.8 mm/year higher than the tide gauge results in 2016. In the event this phenomena is more spatially represented, there is a significant role for long tide gauge records to assist in evaluating climate model products to improve scientific rigour.
Highlights
Climate change is predicted to have far reaching physical, social, environmental and economic impacts [1,2,3,4,5]
This paper provides a methodology for improved comparison and integration of long tide gauge record data with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5) model outputs at a specific location using New York as a case study
The decomposition of the annual time series in the top panel highlights the nature of the internal climate variability influence on mean sea level at this location, with an amplitude in the range of ≈50–60 mm
Summary
Climate change is predicted to have far reaching physical, social, environmental and economic impacts [1,2,3,4,5]. The continued trend for coastal global population migration [4] fuels the increasing projected risks associated with sea level rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) [8] provides the most authoritative and up-to-date global assessment of the state of climate science, including sea level change, past, present and future [9,10]. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5), developed in conjunction with AR5, provides the means by which to assess the differences in future model projections of dynamical sea level changes at fine resolution scale for the benefit of climate research, policy setting and adaptation planning [11,12]
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