Integrating Cluster Analysis into Multi-Criteria Decision Making for Maintenance Management of Aging Culverts

Francesca Marsili,Jörg Bödefeld

doi:10.3390/math9202549

Abstract

Negligence in relation to aging infrastructure systems could have unintended consequences and is therefore associated with a risk. The assessment of the risk of neglecting maintenance provides valuable information for decision making in maintenance management. However, infrastructure systems are interdependent and interconnected systems of systems characterized by hierarchical levels and a multiplicity of failure scenarios. Assessment methodologies are needed that can capture the multidimensional aspect of risk and simplify the risk assessment, while also improving the understanding and interpretation of the results. This paper proposes to integrate the multi-criteria decision analysis with data mining techniques to perform the risk assessment of aging infrastructures. The analysis is characterized by two phases. First, an intra failure scenario risk assessment is performed. Then, the results are aggregated to carry out an inter failure scenario risk assessment. A cluster analysis based on the k-medoids algorithm is applied to reduce the number of alternatives and identify those which dominate the decision problem. The proposed approach is applied to a system of aging culverts of the German waterways network. Results show that the procedure allows to simplify the analysis and improve communication with infrastructure stakeholders.

Highlights

IntroductionInfrastructure management is a complex discipline which plays an essential role in the functioning and the well-being of modern societies
The aim of this paper is to increase the rationality of decision making in infrastructure management by developing a hybrid approach for risk-based maintenance planning in which the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is integrated with data mining techniques
The identification of dominating/dominated alternatives is hampered by the complex elicitation process of the preferences required by this decision problem, which is executed on two different levels, the results suggest that clearly dominating alternatives cannot be identified

Summary

Introduction

Infrastructure management is a complex discipline which plays an essential role in the functioning and the well-being of modern societies. Among the activities that infrastructure management involves, maintenance management is becoming increasingly prevalent. The maintenance backlog [3], which represents the number of unfulfilled maintenance demands concerning predefined security standards, is growing. The German waterways system has to deal with a backlog accumulation of maintenance actions. The asset of waterways infrastructures, managed by the Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration of Germany (Wasserstraßen- und Schifffahrtsverwaltung des Bundes (WSV)) with the support of the Federal Waterways Engineering and Research Institute (Bundesanstalt für Wasserbau (BAW)), includes different types of infrastructures, such as locks, weirs, culverts, canal bridges, and lighthouses, for an estimated asset value of forty billion Euros. There are currently concerns about the culvert system, as it has often been neglected and the failure of one culvert could lead to flooding

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