Abstract
Abstract. The strategies and actions in the management of African River Basins in a warming climate environment have been studied. Using the Gurara Reservoir Catchment in North-West Nigeria as a case study, summations were proposed using hypothetical climate scenarios considering the Global Climate Models prediction and linear trend of the data. Four (4) proposed scenarios of temperature increase (1 % and 2 %) coupled with a decrease in precipitation of (−5 % and −10 %) were combined and applied for the study area. The Water Evaluation and Planning Tool was used to model and evaluates the impact of the earth's rising temperature and declining rainfall on the hydrology and availability of water by investigating its resilience to climate change. Modelling results indicate a reduction in available water within the study area from 4.3 % to 3.5 % compared to the baseline with no climate change scenario, revealing the current water management strategy as not sustainable, uncoordinated, and resulting in overexploitation. The findings could assist in managing future water resources in the catchment by accentuating the need to put in place appropriate adaptation measures to foster resilience to climate change. Practically, it is pertinent to shape more effective policies and regulations within catchments for effective water resources management in reducing water shortage as well as achieving downstream water needs and power benefit in thefuture, while also allowing flexibility in the operation of a reservoir with the ultimate goal of adapting to climate change.
Highlights
The hydrology of large rivers in the world has been experiencing changes in their hydrological characteristics and variations in their morphological processes (Awotwi et al, 2015)
Due to the lack of sufficient hydrological data, the Soil Conservation Service Runoff Curve Number (SCSRCN) method was used for computing the runoff
The calibration and validation using the SCSRCN method for the observed and computed runoff resulted in Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE): calibration 0.72: validation 0.69 and R2: calibration 0.72: validation 0.69
Summary
The hydrology of large rivers in the world has been experiencing changes in their hydrological characteristics and variations in their morphological processes (Awotwi et al, 2015) These observable changes and variations, have widely been attributed to the impact of climate change (Wang and Hejazi, 2011). According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2017; Salvati et al, 2017), the past two centuries have seen a continuous increase in the surface temperature of the earth resulting in the occurrence of extreme weather and variability in precipitation leading to a reduction in runoff (Lehmann et al, 2017). Anthropogenic activities construction of reservoirs, irrigation canals, alternate land use causing an increase in industrial water consumption have resulted in changes in hydrological characteristics especially runoff (Kundzewicz, 2004; Lehmann et al, 2017)
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