Integrated travel demand models for evacuations: a bridge between social science and engineering

Abstract

Since 9/11, the Indian Ocean tsunami and hurricane Katrina, the number of papers that are being published related to mobility simulation in evacuation conditions has significantly increased. Though several topics have been developed, they tend to be implemented with an isolated and non-system approach and for specific kinds of dangerous events. This work aims to present a classification and specification of demand models for mobility simulation in evacuation conditions under different evacuation scenarios, in respect to different temporal conditions. A general framework is proposed to support the analysis of dangerous events, in respect of type and effects, especially in time. Three different temporal evolutions are identified and systematized: event developments and the relative conditioning on the system; user modification of behavior; and planning and management evolution. Leaving from the integrated temporal evolutions, the user behavior in the system context is analyzed and specificmodels are developed. The importance of SP surveys to analyze user behavior in evacuation conditions is highlighted and a hybrid class of surveys, termed SP with a physical check, is introduced. An integrated demand model is specified and calibrated for a dangerous event with effects on travel demand, with diffuse effects in space and delayed in time, according a behavioral approach. Keywords Evacuation, temporal axis, behavioral demand models. Language: en