Integrated spatial priority assessment in Central Asia: Bridging biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human activities

Abstract

Central Asia (CA) faces escalating threats from increasing temperatures, glacier retreat, biodiversity loss, unsustainable water use, terminal lake shrinkage, and soil salinization, all of which challenge the balance between ecological integrity and socio-economic development essential for achieving sustainable development goals. However, a comprehensive understanding of priority areas from a multi-dimensional perspective is lacking, hindering effective conservation and development strategies. To address this, we developed a comprehensive assessment framework with a tailored indicator system, enabling a spatial evaluation of CA's priority areas by integrating biodiversity, ecosystem services (ESs), and human activities. Combining zonation and geographical detectors, this approach facilitates spatial prioritization and examines ecological and socio-economic heterogeneity. Our findings reveal a heterogeneous distribution of priority areas across CA, with significant concentrations in eastern mountainous regions, river valleys, and oasis agricultural lands. We identified 184 key districts crucial for ecological and societal sustainability. Attribution analysis shows that natural factors like soil types, precipitation, and evapotranspiration significantly shape these areas, influencing human activities and the distribution of biodiversity and ESs. Multi-dimensional analysis indicates existing protected areas cover only 15% of the top 30% priority areas, revealing substantial conservation gaps. Additionally, a 38% overlap between ESs and human activities, along with 63.25% congruence in integrated areas, underscores significant human impacts on ecological systems and their dependency on ESs. Given CA's limited resources, it is crucial to implement measures that strengthen conservation efforts, align ecological preservation with socio-economic demands, and enhance resource efficiency through sustainable integrated land and water resource management.