Abstract

Methodology to quantify and distinguish the spatial distribution of the risks from multiple pollutants within the region was developed in this paper. An integrated quantitative risk assessment was conducted by utilizing a large amount of information available to explore spatial distribution of risk by single and multiple pollutants, and the magnitude of the overall risk from multiple pollutants based on the current concentrations of pollutants and toxicity data. Two target criteria levels – level I (NOEC/LOEC based) and level II (LC/EC/IC50 based) – were employed, and thus, the regional and sub-regional risks were evaluated according to these two levels. The risk of multiple toxic metals (As, Cd, Cr, Hg and Pb) to a terrestrial ecosystem for the region around the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea were evaluated as a case. The total overall ecological risks from heavy metals in the region for level I and level II were 21.73% and 12.53%, respectively. The risks were ranked in the order of Cr > As > Pb > Cd > Hg with Cr posing the greatest ecological risk, which was 61.12% for level I. The top three cities according to the level II ecological risk were Cangzhou > Lianyungang > Panjin, while the top three cities of level I ecological risk were Cangzhou > Panjin > Lianyungang. This method provides a quantitative risk assessment with multiple and clear protection levels for risk management.

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