Abstract

"The concepts, methodological approach, assumptions and results of a long-term forecast for 88 federal planning regions in West Germany are presented and discussed. It is emphasized that population and employment projections for policy consultation purposes must be of an intermediate complexity in order to remain transparent and reconstructable. To facilitate the interpretation of the forecasting results, a typology of the planning regions along the dimension of forecasted labour market developments is presented." It is found that "rural peripheral regions with employment problems stemming mainly from demographic factors and old industrial regions with severe labour market imbalances caused by structural change are...the actual and future problem regions in West Germany."

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