Integrated mathematical model of the Barents and White seas large marine ecosystem - a tool for assessing natural risks and efficient use of biological resources

Abstract

Integrated mathematical model of the Barents and White seas LME is proposed as a tool for assessing natural risks and rational use of biological resources. The model includes the following main blocks (modules): a) oceanographic conditions and biological productivity; b) trophodynamics and fishery management; c) environmental and biota pollution; d) socio-economic development; e) assessment of environmental risks from marine activities. Integrated model was used for assessing: the hydrological variability, long-term dynamics of ecosystem productivity and fishing load on the most important commercial species of the Barents Sea. A new zoning of the Barents Sea taking into account the geomorphological and hydrological factors was performed under the guidance of academician G.G. Matishov. Maps of the simulated gross primary production in the Barents Sea for the second half of the 20th and first decade of the 21st centuries are presented. The energy balance in the Barents Sea ecosystem at the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century was calculated by trophodynamic model. It is concluded that determination of the fishing load on populations should base on using ecosystem mathematical models instead of single-species models. To estimate the fishing mortality, it is necessary to take into account not only the spatial effects associated with the characteristics of the fishes' life cycle and the distribution of fishing load, but also the influence of climatic factors and inner-ecosystem interactions. The use of modern information technologies, both in the field of primary data analysis, and in the area of their generalization to diagnose past changes, makes it possible to better understand the consequences for the Barents and White seas LME of existing natural resource use plans, taking into account the experience (sometimes negative) of past years and the expected climatic changes.