Integrated FTA-risk matrix model for risk analysis of a mini hydropower plant's project finance

Abstract

Investments in mini hydropower plants (MHPP) in Serbia are associated with numerous risks, both in the construction and exploitation phases. To assess these risks, this study proposes a methodology combining fault tree analysis and risk matrix using data obtained through a survey and semi-structured interviews with domain experts. Conducting qualitative fault tree analysis, 21 events have been identified that may jeopardize the success of the mini hydropower plant project finance. Based on expert assessments of probability of these events and their financial, reputational, and environmental impacts, risk matrix results showed that public protests, lack of projects sponsors' capital, and problems related to hydrology can be considered as events with the highest risk. In addition, quantitative analysis has been conducted to obtain the priority of measures for risk elimination or reduction. The quantitative fault tree analysis and three importance measures have indicated that measures must first be taken to prevent public protests during the implementation and exploitation phases, and a risk of watercourse abuse in the MHPP project.