Abstract
A stable and reliable urban energy supply is essential for supporting sustainable regional and even national development. Further, a general definition and method is necessary to comprehensively evaluate urban energy supply security for different energy resources, identify key problems, and conduct regulations. Therefore, ecological network analysis (ENA) is introduced as a general systematic analysis tool to simulate and assess urban energy supply security, based on the idea that various components related to energy supply exist and interact in a common network. The proposed ENA model was used to evaluate and compare the security of coal, crude oil, and natural gas supplies for Beijing during 1997–2012. The evaluation included overall sustainability assessment, system property analysis, and structure analysis of energy supply systems. The results showed that the coal supply had the highest level of supply security, followed by the crude oil supply and then the natural gas supply. In addition, the crude oil supply system showed the most competitiveness in terms of the energy supply systems’ properties. Scenario analysis yielded suggestions for improving urban energy supply security by maintaining energy production, increasing energy consumption within a certain range, strengthening and diversifying supply sources, and increasing strategic energy reserves. The ENA-based general model provides a useful tool for systematic evaluation of urban energy security from the supply perspective to quantitatively support urban energy management.
Published Version
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