Integrated duration–cost influence network for modelling risk impacts on construction tasks

Abstract

Quantitative risk analysis is usually ignored in construction risk management, although numerous techniques are available. One of the shortcomings of conventional quantitative risk analysis techniques is that they can only analyse either duration or cost risks. In view of this, an integrated duration–cost influence network that systematically represents the interdependencies among the duration and cost parameters of a construction task has been developed, and mathematical equations have been formulated to represent the dependencies. The generic structure of the influence network can be used for explicitly modelling risk impacts affecting any construction task, and the nature of risks can be investigated in the risk modelling process. In addition, risk impacts modelled can potentially be propagated through the influence network for quantifying the risk‐adjusted task duration and cost simultaneously. Thus, the influence network provides the basis for performing integrated duration–cost risk modelling and simulation in future research.