Inspecting cross-border macro-financial mechanisms

Abstract

We model structural time-varying macro-financial linkages between the U.S. and euro area using a large dataset for each region. We extract both real and financial cycles and identify shocks, using a factor model with drifting parameters. To interpret the mechanisms that drive the empirical results, we contextualize our estimates using a two-country financial accelerator model. Our evidence speaks clearly of an asymmetric cross-border transmission between U.S. and euro area, especially in the financial domain. This is confirmed by our theoretical complement, which shows a strong transmission of U.S. TFP shocks. Moreover, the U.S. is a more leveraged economy, which accentuates the financial accelerator effect.